Average salary is up 10%. What to come?

Office for Statistics of Sverdlovsk Region published the economic development data for the first quarter of 2018. The average monthly salary amounts to 34,140 rubles ($ 596) in the Region. Compared with the first quarter of last year, the growth is 10%. And, while a year ago the real income (income corrected for inflation) of the population decreased, this year’s data show a growth of 8.4%. The numbers are in line with statistics from leading HR agencies YT published earlier this year.

There is also a noticeable growth in housing construction. The number of apartments taken into operation went up from 2,706 to 4002 compared with the first quarter 2017.

But the continuity of these positive trends from the Q1 2018 is exposed to new uncertainty by new political tensions, sanctions and following significant rouble weakening occurred in April 2018. However, the latest Reuters’ monthly poll of 23 analysts and economists does not indicate a significant slow down. The consensus forecast for 2018 gross domestic product growth was lowered only by 0.1 percent, to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent one month earlier. Forecasts for 2018 economic growth ranged from 1.0 percent to 2.5 percent.

“We found the general consensus to be that the new sanctions would not destabilize the macroeconomic situation. However, we see some downside risks to our 2.3 percent growth forecast, given that sanctions would affect business confidence and reduce private sector investment, increase the cost of funding and turn the central bank more cautious,” Morgan Stanley analysts said to Reuters.

Central Bank did not change its forecast for GDP growth 2018 of 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

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